SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHALLENGES FOR 2014

                                           Khondkar Ibrahim Khaled

The new year 2014 has stepped in with socio-economic challenges of new dimensions. Preceding year 2013 ended with Hartal, Abarodh, disruption of conrnuication, violence, killings and social unrest. Consequently, the new year witnessed fall in industrial production, uneasy business environment, decline in import, sluggish export, increased food inflation, decreased inflow of foreign remittances, declining manpower export, increase of banks’ classified loans managed by rescheduling, decreasing demand of bank loans, persisting high level of liquidity in banks, low turnover at the general election and many more challenges.

These problems are economic and financial in nature, but originate from political violence. Hence economic and financial steps are not sufficient, unless congenial environment is restored. Violence must stop and harmony should prevail. This necessarily requires good governance and enforcement of law on the one side, and commitment to social contract on the other side.

If we draw a ‘Problem Tree’ on socio-economic arena, we will be able to ielentify many problems, one originating from another, just like leaves springing out on tender and tiny branches, tiny branches standing on stout branches, stout branches growing out of main body and body standing over the roots. Root problem of Bangladesh is socio-political. For understanding the problem series, clean understanding of ‘root problem’ is useful.

It is often argued that there exists strong mistrust between two major political parties and election under a ‘Caretaker government’ may bridge the gap and restore confidence. This is probably oversimplification of the problem and naive way of looking at it. Caretaker government will not take care of the problem. It is a veil to hide the problem. Root of the problem penetrates deeper.

During 1971, people from all sections of society spontaneously joined the war of liberation while a small group of people joined Pak Army and took up arms against them. Finally Pak Army surrendered and left for Pakistan. But their Bangladeshi allies did not surrender. Many of them fled to Pakistan, Middle East, Europe and other areas. Others remained in the country. They formed ‘Purbo Pakistan Punoruddhar Committee’ in London. The Committee was headed by Golam Azam With total support from Mr. Bhutto. China and soudi Arabia did not recognise independent Bangladesh. U.S government was hostile to the new country. Anti Bangladesh elements, both local and foreign, hatched conspiracy and succeeded in 1975. Main political leader of liberation movement and founder of Bangladesh Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was killed. Four out of five leaders who led liberation war, were assassinated in jail. Thus the winner government of liberation war was annihilated and defeated forces usurped power by force. Golam Azam and others of ‘Punaruddhar’ committee returned to Bangladesh and were rehabilitated. Defeated political leaders, under the protection of new government, started to settle down politically, organise political parties and plan for ultimate capture of state power. finally they shared state power with BNP, a new political party formed after 1975 by the usurpers.

Thus the country is politically divided. Pro-liberation political forces stand for secular democracy while anti-liberation forces are committed to religion-based state. Secular democracy presupposes free-thinking, human rights, government by the people, keeping the state free from religious bias. On the contrary, philosophy of religion-based state pre supposes patronization of one religion by the state, snatching rights of citizens belonging to other religions and enforces religious norms replacing constitutional laws. Democracy does not work under snch a situation. Hence brutal force is used to annihilate opposing liberal forces.

We can look at real situation in Bangladesh. From 1972 onwards no defeated rebels (Jamat, Shibir, Razakar etc) was killed. But defeated rebels or their allies killed Bangabandhu, four leaders of liberation war in 1975 and later on killed finance minister Kibria and attempted on Sheikh Hasina. They used brute force against Bengali culture by bombing at Raman Batamul on Bangla Naba Barsha. They demonstrated brute force by bomb blast in 63 districts simultaneousey. They killed judges for annihilating secular jucliciary. Many more examples can be cited.

How these two inimical forces can work together. These two forces can not co-exist, not to speak of co-operating with each other. For restoring congenial environment and social harmony, we may ponder over following propositions –(i) B.N.P as a democratic party must severe alliance with liberation rebels (Jamat, Shibir, Razakar etc) (ii) Liberation rebels may be out-lawed and maintaining/ establishing connection/ relations with them may be treated as anti-state activity, (iii) Pro-liberation political parties/groups/persons who do not like Awani leagus may join together to form a political platform.

Socio-political measures are time consuming in nature. This may not happen immediately. For continuing congenial environment, good governance meaning enforcement of law must be attempted. Unhindered economic growth requires peaceful and supportive environment.  Now let us take stock of present economic scenario.

Last three months of 2013 witnessed complete breakdown of communication system, railway, river way and roadway did not operate properly. Consequently, vegetable produced in the field could not reach markets. Rice produced in north Bengal remained stored there. Cattle imported from India could not reach Dhaka. Similarly goods produced in the country could not be exported as per schedule. Study reveals that import declined considerably, impacting on trade, procuring and manufacturing. After January 5 election, import might have picked up. We are yet to receive detailed statistics of import in 2014.

Export has increased inspite of obstacles, though the rate of growth has slowed down. This indicates skill and ability of our entrepreneurs. Observations suggest that export will pick-up considerably in the coming months. Probability of GSP facilities in the US may be linked with politics. Even then, export of garment may not suffer, because garment does not enjoy this facility in the U.S.

Declining manpower export and consequently decreased flow of remittance is a new challenge in the new year. Some countries are chasing illegal immigrants, while some other countries are restricting inflow of workers. Government may take two-front plan. In the country, short but appropriate training program should be developed and conducted for the workers. Training must be need based. This will help intending workers get better opportunities with higher wages. On the other hand, Government may engage in continuous dialogue with concerned cunfries and our embassies should learn and use economic diplomacy in an effective manner.

In the banking front, classified loans piled up because of adverse business environment during the second half of 2013. Problems multiplied when many of the banks declassified large amount of such loans by means of ‘rescheduling’. Banks will face great difficulty, if rescheduled loans are finally stuck-up in coming months. To face this challenge, banks must gear-up their monitoring efforts. Bangladesh Bank may conduct special inspection for ascertaining actual status of rescheduled loans.

Economic slow-down will affect growth of national income in 2014. GDP growth rate may fall behind six per cent. However, achieving growth rate of around 5.5 per cent under difficult situation, signifies inherent strength of our economy and competence of private sector. Such inherent strength will help face economic challenges of 2014, provided congenial and peaceful environment prevails in the socio-political arena.